I co-wrote this document with Kathy Goodman and Tom Sander in the spring of 2022 as part of our volunteer work on election integrity with Crimson Goes Blue.
Preventing Election Sabotage
The new challenge to our democracy
Every Vote Should Count
Today in the US, this fundamental principle is under assault by “stop the steal” Republican activists willing to violate core principles of democracy to pursue political power. Having been told by Republican leaders and media that the 2020 election was stolen, they are prepared to sabotage future elections so they can pretend, and try to convince others, that Republicans have won when they have not.
There are many all-too-familiar tricks used to sway elections – voter suppression, corporate money, false claims, gerrymandering, etc. that undermine public faith in our electoral system. Today, we find ourselves at the edge of a new precipice. So-called “Stop the Steal Republicans” have taken a massive anti-democratic step by pioneering a new set of methods: they are working to politicize the traditionally non-partisan process of administering and certifying elections, and thus make elections subject to manipulation.
Two tactics are central to this approach. The first is placing anti-democratic officials into positions with election-related responsibilities, offices historically identified with non-partisan behavior and adherence both to law and democratic principles. The second is legislating changes to election laws that make manipulation of election results and altering certification more likely. We saw these tactics begin to unfold in states like Georgia and Arizona after the 2020 election, where election officials were pressured to violate their obligations to the Constitution.
If we lose the integrity of our elections, anti-democratic leaders who lack popular support will do their best to sabotage the will of the people. And if the people protest, those same leaders will resort to martial law. It’s a familiar and dangerous path to authoritarian rule.
It’s un-American, counter to democratic principles, and dangerous. We need to act now.
How Might Election Sabotage Work?
There are countless possibilities, but here’s one to help illustrate the vulnerabilities of an election system where each state conducts separate concurrent elections.
Georgia’s Republican-controlled state-legislature has granted itself the power to replace election supervisors in counties and the power to certify the election victor. As a result:
- The state legislature, alleging fraud, could refuse to certify a Democrat win or certify a Republican win even when the Democratic candidate received more votes;
- The state legislature could replace the election supervisor in a Democrat stronghold in the Atlanta area with a “stop the steal” supervisor who makes it very hard for Democrats to vote (slow-walking the process to produce long lines, or introducing faulty election machine(s) in the hopes of getting Democrats to give up on voting in the face of long lines);
- The secretary of state could choose to stop the mail-in ballot vote counting at some point based on votes trending towards Democrats.
Assessing Each State
Because elections are administered and certified on a state-by-state basis, we need to examine each one separately to understand the risks and the means of combating election sabotage. The risks are a function of a state’s laws – which offices administer and certify elections and which ones can appoint or otherwise affect the administration and certification process. The risks also depend on whether people willing to act in an anti-democratic fashion hold those offices.
When a state is a swing state or when an election’s results are likely to make manipulating future elections easier, the incentives for election sabotage increase greatly.
Each state is different. The process of administering and certifying elections typically involves either the Secretary of State or an Election Board. In some cases, these officials are elected. In others they are appointed, typically by the Governor. When it comes to changing election laws, the two branches of each state’s legislature may serve as checks and balances on each other. Similarly, governors and legislatures serve as checks and balances, too.
To understand where the focus of election integrity activism should be, we need to ask two sets of questions. The first are about structure and laws, as outlined above. The second are about the office holders and risks in upcoming elections. Is the current occupant of each relevant office anti-democratic and willing to violate laws and democratic principles? How about the likely winners of an upcoming election, or those likely to be appointed?
A National Election Integrity Strategy
Up until now, CGB has focused mostly on federal elections (the Presidency, the US House and Senate) and voter protection to ensure that registered voters can vote. We’re adding to this focus the goal of preserving election integrity.
Our analysis of the states where election integrity is most under threat and that are likely to be battlegrounds in 2024 is presented below. The map highlights high-priority states, and shows the races in the 2022 elections most critical to preserving election integrity in 2024.
We hope a bipartisan activist community will support pro-democracy candidates in all these high-priority state-level races, and that locally-focused groups in other states will engage in activism to help preserve election integrity in their states, too, with particular attention to states where Democrats have established themselves only in the last decade or so – like New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia. In addition, in all states, including those where electoral activism in 2022 is unlikely to strengthen election integrity, groups focused on legal advocacy can play an important role by challenging new anti-democratic laws.
In addition, democracy-valuing citizens of both parties need to step up as non-partisan poll workers and observers (in the closest purple locations) on election days to ensure that voters can vote and their votes are counted.
Within our target states, CGB is developing state-specific strategies to help preserve election integrity. Stay tuned for opportunities to get involved in these critical races.